“It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, remorse, or fear. And it will not stop, ever, until you are dead.” That quote from a 1980’s movie seems to sum up how a lot of people are feeling about this new virus. I believe that if you know the absolute truth about this virus, it will help you to understand what will work and not work, and what will have to happen for us to get past this disease. It is not an entirely pleasant truth, but at least surprises can be avoided.
I wrote an article several years ago while under the influence of a nasty cold called, “Noah and the Bugs”. I described the difference between bacteria and viruses, specifically that viruses require a living cell for their existence; they cannot survive outside the human body for extended periods of time. The virus invades a human cell, hijacks its DNA/RNA system to make copies of itself, and then after enough copies have been made, it ruptures the cell to spread to other cells— and people. The common cold is typically a rhinovirus or coronavirus, and there are hundreds of varieties of cold viruses, so it is impossible to become immune to all of them, explaining why we keep getting colds each year. If you have lived long enough and had several colds, you probably have had some type of coronavirus before. One advantage that we have with viruses is that once infected with a virus, our bodies develop antibodies to it, preventing a recurrent infection. You can get a bacterial infection over and over with the same bacteria, but that is rare with viruses. Once infected, we become immune, sometimes permanently. Some people, uncommonly, can carry a virus, and develop neither symptoms or immunity.
So, when Noah loaded up the ark to preserve all of the species, I don’t know where he kept the viruses, except in himself and his family. In theory, the bacteria could have been kept alive in cultures, but the viruses needed a human host. Noah, Ham, Shem, Japheth and their four wives would have had to carry not only several hundred cold viruses but all of the other horrible diseases—Ebola, Yellow Fever, and so forth. God would have had to spare their lives from these deadly illnesses, so I presume they were the first carriers.
Which brings us to the new coronavirus. If you are exposed to the new coronavirus, there are four possible outcomes. You will get the disease and recover, becoming immune, get the disease and die, or get the virus and become a carrier (rare). The fourth possibility is that you may have had enough coronavirus exposure in the past to have enough immunity to the new virus that you will not become infected.
The virus is not going to give up and go home because of our public health measures. Handwashing, social distancing, or quarantining will not make it go away. There are only two things that will make the virus go away. It is not a bacterial disease or plague that can be eliminated by sanitation or antibiotics. The virus can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, remorse, or fear. It will not stop, ever, until there is enough global immunity to the virus. There is a second possibility that there will be a vaccine, which will probably prove difficult to develop and probably not be available soon enough to blunt the epidemic.
Enough people HAVE to be infected so that there are enough people immune to the disease so that it doesn’t have anywhere to go. It is unclear how many people have to be immune to stop the viral spread. This depends on how contagious the virus is, and it doesn’t have to be 100% of the population. I have seen estimates as low as 60%, but more typically 80%. This explains how the flu goes away each year. Some people have had enough prior flu attacks that they are immune to the new flu strain that year, and that year’s flu vaccine taken before the epidemic may help provide immunity. But until enough people are immune, the flu keeps spreading.
So, you can go live in a cave and wash your hands, but when you come out of your cave, if enough people have not been infected and developed immunity, the virus will still be out there circulating for you to catch. The purpose of all of our current public health measures is not to stop the new coronavirus. It is to slow the spread of the virus. By doing this, our hospitals and health care system can handle the huge numbers of critically ill patients. We will save lives if we have the capacity to treat the sick, but if we overwhelm that capacity, many without care will succumb.
The bad news is that this slowing will delay not only the spread of the virus, but the development of global immunity. We prolong the epidemic. Instead of a raging inferno, we have a smoldering burn; exactly the same number of trees shall be ignited, but perhaps our firefighting resources will be able to douse more of them. The virus will not stop, ever, until this global immunity has been achieved. Whereas the flu reaches a rapid peak, immunity is quickly developed and flu season comes to an end in a few months, by blunting the coronavirus peak we may be looking at not a season but year or years, and instead of a single “curve” there may be waves, with each successive peak getting smaller. Slowing the spread of the virus may also allow time for a vaccine to be developed.
God is our eternal creator, designer, sustainer, and sovereign master. Before the sin of Adam, I presume that man and microbe coexisted peacefully in the Garden. But since that sin, suffering has been unleashed on the world. Although we do not understand why, all that God has decreed is for His glory. What we do understand is that we are here to glorify God in what we do and how we live. As Christians, this and other sufferings, trials, and catastrophes are an integral part of our existence. The Christian is concerned, but not living in fear or panic. We pray for those who are ill, and for those who are at most risk to avoid the illness. Our conduct must honor God; we take what we need but leave some for others. We will need to endure some privations, and what may appear to be Draconian restrictions. The hospital beds will fill, but hopefully each and every patient that needs one will be able to get one. God has not gifted us with foreknowledge of when this will all come to an end, but for those of us who have accepted His Son as Savior, He has given us the assurance that He will sustain us, comfort us, and bless us now during this season and the infinite seasons to come in eternity.
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